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Tupynambás vs Guarani MG — Mineiro - 2 2020

Tupynambás
Tupynambás
FT
2 – 1
Guarani MG
Guarani MG
7/24/2021Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 5Estádio Municipal Radialista Mário Helênio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tupynambás37%
×Draw32%
Guarani MG30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tupynambás
0.98
Guarani MG
0.85

Tupynambás creates 15% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 21 away

creates per match

Tupynambás
0.72
Guarani MG
0.90

allows per match

Tupynambás
0.80
Guarani MG
1.24

finishing

Tupynambás+0.00on par
Guarani MG+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tupynambás ↓

Guarani MG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Tupynambás or draw
70%
Tupynambás or Guarani MG
68%
Draw or Guarani MG
63%

Winning margin

Tupynambás wins by 2+
14%
Guarani MG wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tupynambás 1+ goals
62%
Tupynambás 2+ goals
26%
Tupynambás 3+ goals
8%
Guarani MG 1+ goals
57%
Guarani MG 2+ goals
21%
Guarani MG 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tupynambás (draw refunded)
55%
Guarani MG (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tupynambás at home — creates 0.72, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

Guarani MG away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tupynambás attack 0.72 + Guarani MG defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.98

Guarani MG attack 0.90 + Tupynambás defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tupynambás scores more
37%
level
32%
Guarani MG scores more
30%

Tupynambás at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tupynambás will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tupynambás vs Guarani MG

Tupynambás beat Guarani MG 2-1 in Mineiro - 2 on July 24, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Radialista Mário Helênio in Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais.