Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tupynambás vs Democrata SL — Mineiro - 2 2020

Tupynambás
Tupynambás
FT
1 – 0
Democrata SL
Democrata SL
8/21/2021Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 10Estádio Municipal Radialista Mário Helênio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Tupynambás31%
×Draw34%
Democrata SL35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tupynambás
0.83
Democrata SL
0.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 40 away

creates per match

Tupynambás
0.72
Democrata SL
0.97

allows per match

Tupynambás
0.80
Democrata SL
0.95

finishing

Tupynambás+0.00on par
Democrata SL+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tupynambás ↓

Democrata SL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Tupynambás or draw
65%
Tupynambás or Democrata SL
66%
Draw or Democrata SL
69%

Winning margin

Tupynambás wins by 2+
10%
Democrata SL wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tupynambás 1+ goals
56%
Tupynambás 2+ goals
20%
Tupynambás 3+ goals
5%
Democrata SL 1+ goals
59%
Democrata SL 2+ goals
22%
Democrata SL 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tupynambás (draw refunded)
47%
Democrata SL (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tupynambás at home — creates 0.72, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

Democrata SL away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tupynambás attack 0.72 + Democrata SL defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.83

Democrata SL attack 0.97 + Tupynambás defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Tupynambás scores more
31%
level
34%
Democrata SL scores more
35%

Democrata SL at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Democrata SL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tupynambás vs Democrata SL

Tupynambás beat Democrata SL 1-0 in Mineiro - 2 on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Radialista Mário Helênio in Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais.