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Tupynambás vs Coimbra — Mineiro - 2 2020

Tupynambás
Tupynambás
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Coimbra
Coimbra
5/25/2022Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 7Estádio Municipal Radialista Mário Helênio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Tupynambás40%
×Draw31%
Coimbra29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tupynambás
1.06
Coimbra
0.85

Tupynambás creates 25% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 10 away

creates per match

Tupynambás
0.72
Coimbra
0.90

allows per match

Tupynambás
0.80
Coimbra
1.40

finishing

Tupynambás+0.00on par
Coimbra+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tupynambás ↓

Coimbra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Tupynambás or draw
71%
Tupynambás or Coimbra
69%
Draw or Coimbra
60%

Winning margin

Tupynambás wins by 2+
16%
Coimbra wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tupynambás 1+ goals
65%
Tupynambás 2+ goals
29%
Tupynambás 3+ goals
9%
Coimbra 1+ goals
57%
Coimbra 2+ goals
21%
Coimbra 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tupynambás (draw refunded)
58%
Coimbra (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tupynambás at home — creates 0.72, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

Coimbra away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tupynambás attack 0.72 + Coimbra defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.06

Coimbra attack 0.90 + Tupynambás defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tupynambás scores more
40%
level
31%
Coimbra scores more
29%

Tupynambás at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tupynambás will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 2: Tupynambás 1–0 Coimbra

Tupynambás beat Coimbra 1-0 in Mineiro - 2 on May 25, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Radialista Mário Helênio in Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais.