Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tupynambás vs Betim — Mineiro - 2 2020

Tupynambás
Tupynambás
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Betim
Betim
5/17/2023Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 5Estádio Municipal Radialista Mário Helênio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Tupynambás32%
×Draw32%
Betim36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tupynambás
0.89
Betim
0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 38 away

creates per match

Tupynambás
0.72
Betim
1.11

allows per match

Tupynambás
0.80
Betim
1.05

finishing

Tupynambás+0.00on par
Betim+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tupynambás ↓

Betim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Tupynambás or draw
64%
Tupynambás or Betim
68%
Draw or Betim
68%

Winning margin

Tupynambás wins by 2+
11%
Betim wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tupynambás 1+ goals
59%
Tupynambás 2+ goals
22%
Tupynambás 3+ goals
6%
Betim 1+ goals
62%
Betim 2+ goals
25%
Betim 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tupynambás (draw refunded)
47%
Betim (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tupynambás at home — creates 0.72, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

Betim away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tupynambás attack 0.72 + Betim defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.89

Betim attack 1.11 + Tupynambás defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tupynambás scores more
32%
level
32%
Betim scores more
36%

Betim at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Betim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 2: Tupynambás 2–3 Betim

Betim beat Tupynambás 3-2 in Mineiro - 2 on May 17, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Radialista Mário Helênio in Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais.