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TuPV vs LoPa — Suomen Cup 2018

TuPV
TuPV
FT
0 – 2
LoPa
LoPa
3/2/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundKupittaa 5 KHT Keinonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

TuPV8%
×Draw12%
LoPa81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuPV
0.93
LoPa
3.23

LoPa creates 247% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

TuPV
0.25
LoPa
3.20

allows per match

TuPV
3.25
LoPa
1.60

finishing

TuPV+0.00on par
LoPa+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuPV ↓

LoPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–29%
0–39%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

TuPV or draw
19%
TuPV or LoPa
88%
Draw or LoPa
92%

Winning margin

TuPV wins by 2+
2%
LoPa wins by 2+
62%

Team goals

TuPV 1+ goals
61%
TuPV 2+ goals
24%
TuPV 3+ goals
7%
LoPa 1+ goals
96%
LoPa 2+ goals
82%
LoPa 3+ goals
61%

Draw no bet

TuPV (draw refunded)
9%
LoPa (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuPV at home — creates 0.25, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

LoPa away — creates 3.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuPV attack 0.25 + LoPa defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 0.93

LoPa attack 3.20 + TuPV defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 3.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

TuPV scores more
8%
level
12%
LoPa scores more
81%

LoPa at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "LoPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: TuPV 0–2 LoPa

LoPa beat TuPV 2-0 in Suomen Cup on March 2, 2022.

The match was played at Kupittaa 5 KHT Keinonurmi in Åbo.