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TuPS vs ToTe — Suomen Cup 2018

TuPS
TuPS
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ToTe
ToTe
3/29/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundSinelli Areena TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

TuPS5%
×Draw9%
ToTe85%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuPS
0.80
ToTe
3.50

ToTe creates 338% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

TuPS
0.60
ToTe
4.00

allows per match

TuPS
3.00
ToTe
1.00

finishing

TuPS+0.00on par
ToTe+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuPS ↓

ToTe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–29%
0–310%
0–49%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

TuPS or draw
15%
TuPS or ToTe
91%
Draw or ToTe
95%

Winning margin

TuPS wins by 2+
1%
ToTe wins by 2+
69%

Team goals

TuPS 1+ goals
55%
TuPS 2+ goals
19%
TuPS 3+ goals
5%
ToTe 1+ goals
97%
ToTe 2+ goals
85%
ToTe 3+ goals
66%

Draw no bet

TuPS (draw refunded)
6%
ToTe (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuPS at home — creates 0.60, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

ToTe away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuPS attack 0.60 + ToTe defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

ToTe attack 4.00 + TuPS defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

TuPS scores more
5%
level
9%
ToTe scores more
85%

ToTe at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "ToTe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: TuPS 0–0 ToTe

TuPS and ToTe drew 0-0 in Suomen Cup on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Sinelli Areena TN in Vantaa.