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TuPS vs KäPa — Suomen Cup 2018

TuPS
TuPS
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 3
KäPa
KäPa
5/17/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 4th RoundHyrylä UK TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

TuPS10%
×Draw13%
KäPa77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuPS
1.05
KäPa
3.10

KäPa creates 195% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

TuPS
0.60
KäPa
3.20

allows per match

TuPS
3.00
KäPa
1.50

finishing

TuPS+0.00on par
KäPa+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuPS ↓

KäPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–28%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

TuPS or draw
23%
TuPS or KäPa
87%
Draw or KäPa
90%

Winning margin

TuPS wins by 2+
3%
KäPa wins by 2+
58%

Team goals

TuPS 1+ goals
65%
TuPS 2+ goals
28%
TuPS 3+ goals
9%
KäPa 1+ goals
95%
KäPa 2+ goals
81%
KäPa 3+ goals
58%

Draw no bet

TuPS (draw refunded)
11%
KäPa (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuPS at home — creates 0.60, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

KäPa away — creates 3.20, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuPS attack 0.60 + KäPa defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.05

KäPa attack 3.20 + TuPS defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

TuPS scores more
10%
level
13%
KäPa scores more
77%

KäPa at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "KäPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TuPS 0 – 7 KäPa

KäPa beat TuPS 7-0 in Suomen Cup on May 17, 2023.

The match was played at Hyrylä UK TN in Tuusula.