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TuPS vs JäPS — Suomen Cup 2018

TuPS
TuPS
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
JäPS
JäPSadvanced
S. Maliki 90'
A. Ristola 85'
4/14/2026Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Round of 128Tuusulan urheilukeskus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

TuPS7%
×Draw12%
JäPS81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuPS
0.84
JäPS
3.12

JäPS creates 271% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

TuPS
0.60
JäPS
3.23

allows per match

TuPS
3.00
JäPS
1.08

finishing

TuPS+0.00on par
JäPS+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuPS ↓

JäPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–210%
0–310%
0–48%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

TuPS or draw
19%
TuPS or JäPS
88%
Draw or JäPS
93%

Winning margin

TuPS wins by 2+
2%
JäPS wins by 2+
62%

Team goals

TuPS 1+ goals
57%
TuPS 2+ goals
21%
TuPS 3+ goals
5%
JäPS 1+ goals
95%
JäPS 2+ goals
81%
JäPS 3+ goals
59%

Draw no bet

TuPS (draw refunded)
8%
JäPS (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuPS at home — creates 0.60, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

JäPS away — creates 3.23, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuPS attack 0.60 + JäPS defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.84

JäPS attack 3.23 + TuPS defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

TuPS scores more
7%
level
12%
JäPS scores more
81%

JäPS at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "JäPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

85'
A. Ristola
90'
S. Maliki
TuPS
JäPS
P. Turpeinen
Manager: P. Turpeinen
Teemu Kankkunen
Manager: Teemu Kankkunen

TuPS 0 – 2 JäPS

JäPS beat TuPS 2-0 in Suomen Cup on April 14, 2026.

Goals: A. Ristola (85'), S. Maliki (90').

The match was played at Tuusulan urheilukeskus in Tuusula.