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TuPS vs HJK Helsinki — Suomen Cup 2018

TuPS
TuPS
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki
6/16/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 5th RoundTuusulan Urheilukeskus Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

TuPS5%
×Draw12%
HJK Helsinki83%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuPS
0.59
HJK Helsinki
2.83

HJK Helsinki creates 380% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

creates per match

TuPS
0.60
HJK Helsinki
2.65

allows per match

TuPS
3.00
HJK Helsinki
0.59

finishing

TuPS+0.00on par
HJK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuPS ↓

HJK Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–110%
0–213%
0–313%
0–49%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

TuPS or draw
17%
TuPS or HJK Helsinki
88%
Draw or HJK Helsinki
95%

Winning margin

TuPS wins by 2+
1%
HJK Helsinki wins by 2+
63%

Team goals

TuPS 1+ goals
45%
TuPS 2+ goals
12%
TuPS 3+ goals
2%
HJK Helsinki 1+ goals
94%
HJK Helsinki 2+ goals
77%
HJK Helsinki 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

TuPS (draw refunded)
6%
HJK Helsinki (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuPS at home — creates 0.60, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

HJK Helsinki away — creates 2.65, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuPS attack 0.60 + HJK Helsinki defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.59

HJK Helsinki attack 2.65 + TuPS defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

TuPS scores more
5%
level
12%
HJK Helsinki scores more
83%

HJK Helsinki at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "HJK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: TuPS 0–5 HJK Helsinki

HJK Helsinki beat TuPS 5-0 in Suomen Cup on June 16, 2024.

The match was played at Tuusulan Urheilukeskus Stadion in Tuusula.