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TuPS O35 vs ToBK — Suomen Cup 2018

TuPS O35
TuPS O35
FT
0 – 3
ToBK
ToBK
3/4/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundHyrylä UK TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

TuPS O3511%
×Draw13%
ToBK76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuPS O35
1.27
ToBK
3.37

ToBK creates 165% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

TuPS O35
2.20
ToBK
3.33

allows per match

TuPS O35
3.40
ToBK
0.33

finishing

TuPS O35+0.00on par
ToBK+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuPS O35 ↓

ToBK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

TuPS O35 or draw
24%
TuPS O35 or ToBK
87%
Draw or ToBK
89%

Winning margin

TuPS O35 wins by 2+
4%
ToBK wins by 2+
58%

Team goals

TuPS O35 1+ goals
72%
TuPS O35 2+ goals
36%
TuPS O35 3+ goals
14%
ToBK 1+ goals
96%
ToBK 2+ goals
84%
ToBK 3+ goals
63%

Draw no bet

TuPS O35 (draw refunded)
13%
ToBK (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuPS O35 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

ToBK away — creates 3.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuPS O35 attack 2.20 + ToBK defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

ToBK attack 3.33 + TuPS O35 defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 3.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

TuPS O35 scores more
11%
level
13%
ToBK scores more
76%

ToBK at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "ToBK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TuPS O35 0 – 3 ToBK

ToBK beat TuPS O35 3-0 in Suomen Cup on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Hyrylä UK TN in Tuusula.