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TuPS O35 vs LoPa — Suomen Cup 2018

TuPS O35
TuPS O35
FT
2 – 4
LoPa
LoPa
4/4/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundHyrylä UK TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

TuPS O3521%
×Draw16%
LoPa63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuPS O35
1.90
LoPa
3.30

LoPa creates 74% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

TuPS O35
2.20
LoPa
3.20

allows per match

TuPS O35
3.40
LoPa
1.60

finishing

TuPS O35+0.00on par
LoPa+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuPS O35 ↓

LoPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

TuPS O35 or draw
37%
TuPS O35 or LoPa
84%
Draw or LoPa
79%

Winning margin

TuPS O35 wins by 2+
10%
LoPa wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

TuPS O35 1+ goals
85%
TuPS O35 2+ goals
56%
TuPS O35 3+ goals
29%
LoPa 1+ goals
96%
LoPa 2+ goals
83%
LoPa 3+ goals
62%

Draw no bet

TuPS O35 (draw refunded)
24%
LoPa (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuPS O35 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

LoPa away — creates 3.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuPS O35 attack 2.20 + LoPa defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.90

LoPa attack 3.20 + TuPS O35 defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 3.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

TuPS O35 scores more
21%
level
16%
LoPa scores more
63%

LoPa at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "LoPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: TuPS O35 2–4 LoPa

LoPa beat TuPS O35 4-2 in Suomen Cup on April 4, 2024.

The match was played at Hyrylä UK TN in Tuusula.