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TuPS O35 vs HyPS — Suomen Cup 2018

TuPS O35
TuPS O35
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
HyPS
HyPS
3/16/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundHyrylä UK TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

TuPS O3511%
×Draw11%
HyPS78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuPS O35
1.77
HyPS
4.54

HyPS creates 156% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

TuPS O35
2.20
HyPS
5.67

allows per match

TuPS O35
3.40
HyPS
1.33

finishing

TuPS O35+0.00on par
HyPS+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuPS O35 ↓

HyPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–33%
0–44%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–24%
1–36%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–42%

Most likely 1–4 (7%) · grid covers 61% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
85%15%4.5
70%30%

Double chance

TuPS O35 or draw
22%
TuPS O35 or HyPS
89%
Draw or HyPS
89%

Winning margin

TuPS O35 wins by 2+
4%
HyPS wins by 2+
63%

Team goals

TuPS O35 1+ goals
83%
TuPS O35 2+ goals
53%
TuPS O35 3+ goals
26%
HyPS 1+ goals
99%
HyPS 2+ goals
93%
HyPS 3+ goals
80%

Draw no bet

TuPS O35 (draw refunded)
12%
HyPS (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
80%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuPS O35 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

HyPS away — creates 5.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuPS O35 attack 2.20 + HyPS defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

HyPS attack 5.67 + TuPS O35 defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 4.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

TuPS O35 scores more
11%
level
11%
HyPS scores more
78%

HyPS at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "HyPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TuPS O35 vs HyPS

TuPS O35 and HyPS drew 2-2 in Suomen Cup on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Hyrylä UK TN in Tuusula.