Tupi 4–1 Ypiranga-RS: Result & Stats | Serie C

Tupi

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ypiranga-RS

João Vítor 84'

Sidimar 74'

Patrick Carvalho 58', 29'

Paulinho 83'

6/9/2018

Serie C · Round 9Estádio Municipal Radialista Mário Helênio (Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Tupi42%

×Draw28%

Ypiranga-RS30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TupiExpected goals in this matchYpiranga-RS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.04

Tupi

1.28

Ypiranga-RS

1.04

Tupi creates 23% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 92 away

1.18

creates per match

1.00

1.09

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Tupi

1.18

Ypiranga-RS

1.00

allows per match

Tupi

1.09

Ypiranga-RS

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tupi+0.00on par

Ypiranga-RS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tupi ↓

Ypiranga-RS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tupi or draw

70%

Tupi or Ypiranga-RS

72%

Draw or Ypiranga-RS

58%

Winning margin

Tupi wins by 2+

19%

Ypiranga-RS wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tupi 1+ goals

72%

Tupi 2+ goals

37%

Tupi 3+ goals

14%

Ypiranga-RS 1+ goals

65%

Ypiranga-RS 2+ goals

28%

Ypiranga-RS 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tupi (draw refunded)

58%

Ypiranga-RS (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tupi at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Ypiranga-RS away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.39 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tupi attack 1.18 + Ypiranga-RS defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.28

Ypiranga-RS attack 1.00 + Tupi defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tupi scores more

42%

level

28%

Ypiranga-RS scores more

30%

Tupi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tupi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Patrick Carvalho

43'

Joãozinho← Marquinhos

58'

65'

65'

74'

78'

83'

84'

85'

Tupi

Ypiranga-RS

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: Eugênio Souza

65'▲João Vítor←▼Paulo

78'▲João Willian←▼Diego

85'▲Rodrigo Dias←▼Afonso

Tupi substitutes

VítorWillianDiasGonçalvesAlexandreHenriqueHenriqueKaluWellington

Manager: Marcio Nunes

43'▲Joãozinho←▼Marquinhos

65'▲Paulinho←▼Jajá Viola

Ypiranga-RS substitutes

JoãozinhoPaulinhoGrittiRochaWeegeFábioMarcãoReisFaísca

Serie C: Tupi 4–1 Ypiranga-RS

Tupi beat Ypiranga-RS 4-1 in Serie C on June 9, 2018.

Goals: Patrick Carvalho (29', 58'), Sidimar (74'), Paulinho (83'), João Vítor (84').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Radialista Mário Helênio (Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais).

Tupi vs Ypiranga-RS — Serie C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: Tupi 4–1 Ypiranga-RS