Tupi 0–0 Varginha EC: Result & Stats | Mineiro - 2

Tupi

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Varginha EC

5/15/2022

Mineiro - 2 · Round 5Estádio Municipal Radialista Mário Helênio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Tupi43%

×Draw28%

Varginha EC29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TupiExpected goals in this matchVarginha EC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.03

Tupi

1.32

Varginha EC

1.03

Tupi creates 28% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 26 away

1.18

creates per match

0.92

1.14

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Tupi

1.18

Varginha EC

0.92

allows per match

Tupi

1.14

Varginha EC

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tupi+0.00on par

Varginha EC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tupi ↓

Varginha EC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tupi or draw

71%

Tupi or Varginha EC

72%

Draw or Varginha EC

57%

Winning margin

Tupi wins by 2+

20%

Varginha EC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tupi 1+ goals

73%

Tupi 2+ goals

38%

Tupi 3+ goals

15%

Varginha EC 1+ goals

64%

Varginha EC 2+ goals

28%

Varginha EC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tupi (draw refunded)

60%

Varginha EC (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tupi at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 28 matches

Varginha EC away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tupi attack 1.18 + Varginha EC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.32

Varginha EC attack 0.92 + Tupi defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tupi scores more

43%

level

28%

Varginha EC scores more

29%

Tupi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tupi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff