Tupi 1–3 Serranense: Result & Stats | Mineiro - 2

Tupi

FT

1 – 3

Serranense

7/18/2021

Mineiro - 2 · Round 3Estádio Municipal Radialista Mário Helênio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Tupi46%

×Draw27%

Serranense27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TupiExpected goals in this matchSerranense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.02

Tupi

1.41

Serranense

1.02

Tupi creates 38% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 11 away

1.18

creates per match

0.91

1.14

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Tupi

1.18

Serranense

0.91

allows per match

Tupi

1.14

Serranense

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tupi+0.00on par

Serranense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tupi ↓

Serranense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tupi or draw

73%

Tupi or Serranense

73%

Draw or Serranense

54%

Winning margin

Tupi wins by 2+

22%

Serranense wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tupi 1+ goals

76%

Tupi 2+ goals

41%

Tupi 3+ goals

17%

Serranense 1+ goals

64%

Serranense 2+ goals

27%

Serranense 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Tupi (draw refunded)

63%

Serranense (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tupi at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 28 matches

Serranense away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tupi attack 1.18 + Serranense defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.41

Serranense attack 0.91 + Tupi defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tupi scores more

46%

level

27%

Serranense scores more

27%

Tupi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tupi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff