Tupi 0–3 Bragantino: Result & Stats | Serie C

Tupi

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Bragantino

Gustavo Vintecinco 83'

Vitinho 69'

Marquinhos 25'

6/23/2018

Serie C · Round 11Estádio Municipal Radialista Mário Helênio (Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Tupi34%

×Draw30%

Bragantino36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TupiExpected goals in this matchBragantino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.09

Tupi

1.04

Bragantino

1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.18

creates per match

1.09

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Tupi

1.18

Bragantino

1.09

allows per match

Tupi

1.09

Bragantino

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tupi+0.00on par

Bragantino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tupi ↓

Bragantino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Tupi or draw

64%

Tupi or Bragantino

70%

Draw or Bragantino

66%

Winning margin

Tupi wins by 2+

13%

Bragantino wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tupi 1+ goals

65%

Tupi 2+ goals

28%

Tupi 3+ goals

9%

Bragantino 1+ goals

66%

Bragantino 2+ goals

30%

Bragantino 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tupi (draw refunded)

48%

Bragantino (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tupi at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Bragantino away — creates 1.09, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tupi attack 1.18 + Bragantino defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.04

Bragantino attack 1.09 + Tupi defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tupi scores more

34%

level

30%

Bragantino scores more

36%

Bragantino at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Bragantino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

Marquinhos

54'

Potita← Diego

56'

João Willian← Paulo

63'

Andrey← João Vítor

69'

Vitinho

70'

Gustavo Vintecinco← Matheus Peixoto

74'

Rodrigo Alves← Marquinhos

80'

Jonathan← Adenilson

83'

Gustavo Vintecinco

Tupi

Bragantino

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Eugênio Souza

54'▲Potita←▼Diego

56'▲João Willian←▼Paulo

63'▲Andrey←▼João Vítor

Tupi substitutes

PotitaWillianAndreyGonçalvesRanuleHenriqueMarcelDiasKaluReis

Manager: Marcelo Veiga

70'▲Gustavo Vintecinco←▼Matheus Peixoto

74'▲Rodrigo Alves←▼Marquinhos

80'▲Jonathan←▼Adenilson

Bragantino substitutes

VintecincoAlvesJonathanLuanPaulistaGaúchoPedroJulianoMarcelMarlonPereira