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Tupi U20 vs XV de Piracicaba U20 — League #618 2026

Tupi U20
Tupi U20
FT
3 – 1
XV de Piracicaba U20
XV de Piracicaba U20
1/9/2020League #618League #618 · Group Stage - 3Estádio Ítalo Mário Limongi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tupi U2044%
×Draw28%
XV de Piracicaba U2028%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tupi U20
1.33
XV de Piracicaba U20
1.00

Tupi U20 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Tupi U20
1.33
XV de Piracicaba U20
1.00

allows per match

Tupi U20
1.00
XV de Piracicaba U20
1.33

finishing

Tupi U20+0.00on par
XV de Piracicaba U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 59Over: 4159%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tupi U20 ↓

XV de Piracicaba U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tupi U20 or draw
72%
Tupi U20 or XV de Piracicaba U20
72%
Draw or XV de Piracicaba U20
56%

Winning margin

Tupi U20 wins by 2+
21%
XV de Piracicaba U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tupi U20 1+ goals
74%
Tupi U20 2+ goals
38%
Tupi U20 3+ goals
15%
XV de Piracicaba U20 1+ goals
63%
XV de Piracicaba U20 2+ goals
26%
XV de Piracicaba U20 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tupi U20 (draw refunded)
61%
XV de Piracicaba U20 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tupi U20 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

XV de Piracicaba U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tupi U20 attack 1.33 + XV de Piracicaba U20 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

XV de Piracicaba U20 attack 1.00 + Tupi U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tupi U20 scores more
44%
level
28%
XV de Piracicaba U20 scores more
28%

Tupi U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tupi U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #618: Tupi U20 3–1 XV de Piracicaba U20

Tupi U20 beat XV de Piracicaba U20 3-1 in League #618 on January 9, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Ítalo Mário Limongi in Indaiatuba, São Paulo.