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Tupan vs São José MA — Maranhense - 2 2026

Tupan
Tupan
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
São José MA
São José MA
6/14/2026Maranhense - 2Maranhense - 2 · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Tupan36%
×Draw27%
São José MA36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tupan
1.25
São José MA
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Tupan
0.50
São José MA
1.13

allows per match

Tupan
1.38
São José MA
2.00

finishing

Tupan+0.00on par
São José MA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 54Over: 4654%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 51No: 4951%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tupan ↓

São José MA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tupan or draw
64%
Tupan or São José MA
73%
Draw or São José MA
64%

Winning margin

Tupan wins by 2+
16%
São José MA wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tupan 1+ goals
71%
Tupan 2+ goals
36%
Tupan 3+ goals
13%
São José MA 1+ goals
71%
São José MA 2+ goals
36%
São José MA 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tupan (draw refunded)
50%
São José MA (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tupan at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

São José MA away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tupan attack 0.50 + São José MA defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

São José MA attack 1.13 + Tupan defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tupan scores more
36%
level
27%
São José MA scores more
36%

Tupan at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Tupan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Maranhense - 2: Tupan 2–3 São José MA

São José MA beat Tupan 3-2 in Maranhense - 2 on June 14, 2026.