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Tupa vs Santa Fé FC — Paulista Série B 2026

Tupa
Tupa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Santa Fé FC
Santa Fé FC
Pyetro 86'
K. Bongarti de Souza 77'
F. Arthur 62'
6/20/2026Paulista Série BPaulista Série B · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tupa50%
×Draw24%
Santa Fé FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tupa
1.69
Santa Fé FC
1.13

Tupa creates 50% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 5 away

creates per match

Tupa
1.37
Santa Fé FC
1.00

allows per match

Tupa
1.26
Santa Fé FC
2.00

finishing

Tupa+0.00on par
Santa Fé FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tupa ↓

Santa Fé FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tupa or draw
75%
Tupa or Santa Fé FC
76%
Draw or Santa Fé FC
50%

Winning margin

Tupa wins by 2+
27%
Santa Fé FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tupa 1+ goals
82%
Tupa 2+ goals
50%
Tupa 3+ goals
24%
Santa Fé FC 1+ goals
68%
Santa Fé FC 2+ goals
31%
Santa Fé FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tupa (draw refunded)
66%
Santa Fé FC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tupa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Santa Fé FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tupa attack 1.37 + Santa Fé FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Santa Fé FC attack 1.00 + Tupa defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tupa scores more
50%
level
24%
Santa Fé FC scores more
25%

Tupa at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tupa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'
F. Arthur
77'
K. Bongarti de Souza
86'
Pyetro

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista Série B: Tupa 1–2 Santa Fé FC

Santa Fé FC beat Tupa 2-1 in Paulista Série B on June 20, 2026.

Goals: F. Arthur (62'), K. Bongarti de Souza (77'), Pyetro (86').