Tupã U20 1–2 Gremio Prudente U20: Result & Stats

Tupã U20

FT

1 – 2

Gremio Prudente U20

5/10/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Alonso de Carvalho Braga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tupã U2017%

×Draw19%

Gremio Prudente U2063%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tupã U20Expected goals in this matchGremio Prudente U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

2.29

Tupã U20

1.12

Gremio Prudente U20

2.29

Gremio Prudente U20 creates 104% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 21 away

1.00

creates per match

1.38

3.20

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Tupã U20

1.00

Gremio Prudente U20

1.38

allows per match

Tupã U20

3.20

Gremio Prudente U20

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tupã U20+0.00on par

Gremio Prudente U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tupã U20 ↓

Gremio Prudente U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–18%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Tupã U20 or draw

37%

Tupã U20 or Gremio Prudente U20

81%

Draw or Gremio Prudente U20

83%

Winning margin

Tupã U20 wins by 2+

6%

Gremio Prudente U20 wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Tupã U20 1+ goals

67%

Tupã U20 2+ goals

31%

Tupã U20 3+ goals

10%

Gremio Prudente U20 1+ goals

90%

Gremio Prudente U20 2+ goals

66%

Gremio Prudente U20 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Tupã U20 (draw refunded)

22%

Gremio Prudente U20 (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tupã U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

Gremio Prudente U20 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tupã U20 attack 1.00 + Gremio Prudente U20 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.12

Gremio Prudente U20 attack 1.38 + Tupã U20 defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tupã U20 scores more

17%

level

19%

Gremio Prudente U20 scores more

63%

Gremio Prudente U20 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Gremio Prudente U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff