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TuNL vs Torre Calcio — Suomen Cup 2018

TuNL
TuNL
FT
1 – 0
Torre Calcio
Torre Calcio
3/23/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundKupittaa 5 KHT Keinonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

TuNL24%
×Draw20%
Torre Calcio56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuNL
1.50
Torre Calcio
2.33

Torre Calcio creates 55% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

TuNL
2.00
Torre Calcio
1.67

allows per match

TuNL
3.00
Torre Calcio
1.00

finishing

TuNL+0.00on par
Torre Calcio+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuNL ↓

Torre Calcio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

TuNL or draw
44%
TuNL or Torre Calcio
80%
Draw or Torre Calcio
76%

Winning margin

TuNL wins by 2+
11%
Torre Calcio wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

TuNL 1+ goals
78%
TuNL 2+ goals
44%
TuNL 3+ goals
19%
Torre Calcio 1+ goals
90%
Torre Calcio 2+ goals
67%
Torre Calcio 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

TuNL (draw refunded)
30%
Torre Calcio (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuNL at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

Torre Calcio away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuNL attack 2.00 + Torre Calcio defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Torre Calcio attack 1.67 + TuNL defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

TuNL scores more
24%
level
20%
Torre Calcio scores more
56%

Torre Calcio at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Torre Calcio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: TuNL 1–0 Torre Calcio

TuNL beat Torre Calcio 1-0 in Suomen Cup on March 23, 2023.

The match was played at Kupittaa 5 KHT Keinonurmi in Åbo.