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TuNL vs ÅCF — Suomen Cup 2018

TuNL
TuNL
FT
1 – 3
ÅCF
ÅCF
4/6/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundKupittaa 5 KHT Keinonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

TuNL10%
×Draw12%
ÅCF78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuNL
1.38
ÅCF
3.75

ÅCF creates 172% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

TuNL
2.00
ÅCF
4.50

allows per match

TuNL
3.00
ÅCF
0.75

finishing

TuNL+0.00on par
ÅCF+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuNL ↓

ÅCF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–25%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

TuNL or draw
22%
TuNL or ÅCF
88%
Draw or ÅCF
90%

Winning margin

TuNL wins by 2+
4%
ÅCF wins by 2+
61%

Team goals

TuNL 1+ goals
75%
TuNL 2+ goals
40%
TuNL 3+ goals
16%
ÅCF 1+ goals
97%
ÅCF 2+ goals
88%
ÅCF 3+ goals
70%

Draw no bet

TuNL (draw refunded)
12%
ÅCF (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuNL at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

ÅCF away — creates 4.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuNL attack 2.00 + ÅCF defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

ÅCF attack 4.50 + TuNL defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

TuNL scores more
10%
level
12%
ÅCF scores more
78%

ÅCF at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "ÅCF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TuNL 1 – 3 ÅCF

ÅCF beat TuNL 3-1 in Suomen Cup on April 6, 2023.

The match was played at Kupittaa 5 KHT Keinonurmi in Åbo.