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Tunisia W vs Tanzania W — Friendlies Women 2026

Tunisia W
Tunisia W
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Tanzania W
Tanzania W
D. Minja 90+4'
A. Mnunka 63', 28', 16'
O. Clement Tukumbuke 41'
7/11/2024Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Stade Municipal d'Ariana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Tunisia W66%
×Draw18%
Tanzania W16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tunisia W
2.48
Tanzania W
1.14

Tunisia W creates 118% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

Tunisia W
2.73
Tanzania W
1.00

allows per match

Tunisia W
1.27
Tanzania W
2.22

finishing

Tunisia W+0.00on par
Tanzania W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tunisia W ↓

Tanzania W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Tunisia W or draw
84%
Tunisia W or Tanzania W
82%
Draw or Tanzania W
34%

Winning margin

Tunisia W wins by 2+
44%
Tanzania W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tunisia W 1+ goals
92%
Tunisia W 2+ goals
70%
Tunisia W 3+ goals
44%
Tanzania W 1+ goals
68%
Tanzania W 2+ goals
32%
Tanzania W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tunisia W (draw refunded)
81%
Tanzania W (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tunisia W at home — creates 2.73, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Tanzania W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tunisia W attack 2.73 + Tanzania W defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.48

Tanzania W attack 1.00 + Tunisia W defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Tunisia W scores more
66%
level
18%
Tanzania W scores more
16%

Tunisia W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Tunisia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
A. Mnunka
28'
A. Mnunka
41'
O. Clement Tukumbuke
63'
A. Mnunka
90+4'
D. Minja

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tunisia W vs Tanzania W

Tanzania W beat Tunisia W 5-0 in Friendlies Women on July 11, 2024.

Goals: A. Mnunka (16', 28', 63'), O. Clement Tukumbuke (41'), D. Minja (90+4').

The match was played at Stade Municipal d'Ariana in Ariana.