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Tunisia vs Mauritania — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Tunisia
Tunisia
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Mauritania
Mauritania
1/16/2022Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 2Stade Omnisport de Limbe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Tunisia69%
×Draw22%
Mauritania10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tunisia
1.79
Mauritania
0.51

Tunisia creates 251% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Tunisia
1.45
Mauritania
0.38

allows per match

Tunisia
0.64
Mauritania
2.13

finishing

Tunisia+0.00on par
Mauritania+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tunisia ↓

Mauritania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tunisia or draw
90%
Tunisia or Mauritania
78%
Draw or Mauritania
31%

Winning margin

Tunisia wins by 2+
41%
Mauritania wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Tunisia 1+ goals
83%
Tunisia 2+ goals
53%
Tunisia 3+ goals
26%
Mauritania 1+ goals
40%
Mauritania 2+ goals
9%
Mauritania 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Tunisia (draw refunded)
87%
Mauritania (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tunisia at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Mauritania away — creates 0.38, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tunisia attack 1.45 + Mauritania defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.79

Mauritania attack 0.38 + Tunisia defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Tunisia scores more
69%
level
22%
Mauritania scores more
10%

Tunisia at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Tunisia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tunisia vs Mauritania

Tunisia beat Mauritania 4-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on January 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Omnisport de Limbe in Limbé.