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Tunisia vs England — World Cup 2026

Tunisia
Tunisia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
England
England
F. Sassi 35' (pen)
H. Kane 90+1', 11'
6/18/2018World CupWorld Cup · Group Stage - 1Volgograd Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tunisia14%
×Draw20%
England66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tunisia
0.86
England
2.13

England creates 148% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Tunisia
0.60
England
2.25

allows per match

Tunisia
2.00
England
1.13

finishing

Tunisia+0.00on par
England+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tunisia ↓

England →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Tunisia or draw
34%
Tunisia or England
80%
Draw or England
86%

Winning margin

Tunisia wins by 2+
4%
England wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Tunisia 1+ goals
58%
Tunisia 2+ goals
21%
Tunisia 3+ goals
6%
England 1+ goals
88%
England 2+ goals
63%
England 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Tunisia (draw refunded)
18%
England (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tunisia at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

England away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tunisia attack 0.60 + England defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.86

England attack 2.25 + Tunisia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Tunisia scores more
14%
level
20%
England scores more
66%

England at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "England will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
K. TrippierEnglandEngland · M
8.3

Match Events

11'
H. Kane
15'
F. Ben Mustapha← M. Hassen
33'
Kyle Walker
35'
F. SassiPenalty
68'
M. Rashford← R. Sterling
74'
M. Ben Amor← N. Sliti
80'
R. Loftus-Cheek← D. Alli
85'
S. Khalifa← W. Khazri
90+3'
E. Dier← J. Lingard
90+1'
H. Kane↳ H. Maguire

Possession

39%Tunisia

Shots

6Tunisia

Pass accuracy

48%Tunisia

Statistics

TunisiaEngland
Overview
39%Possession61%
6Total Shots18
2Corners7
14Fouls8
Shots
6Total Shots18
1On Target8
3Off Target8
2Blocked2
3Inside Box14
3Outside Box4
Passing
39%Possession61%
352Total Passes531
273Accurate Passes457
78%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
5Saves0
Discipline
14Fouls8
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Tunisia vs England

England beat Tunisia 2-1 in World Cup on June 18, 2018.

Goals: H. Kane (11', 90+1'), F. Sassi (35' pen).

England controlled possession (61%) and registered 18 shots to 6.

The match was played at Volgograd Arena in Volgograd.