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Tunisia vs Cape Verde Islands — Friendlies 2026

Tunisia
Tunisia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cape Verde Islands
Cape Verde Islands
1/10/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Tunisia32%
×Draw28%
Cape Verde Islands40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tunisia
1.06
Cape Verde Islands
1.23

Cape Verde Islands creates 16% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

creates per match

Tunisia
1.21
Cape Verde Islands
1.82

allows per match

Tunisia
0.63
Cape Verde Islands
0.91

finishing

Tunisia+0.00on par
Cape Verde Islands+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tunisia ↓

Cape Verde Islands →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tunisia or draw
60%
Tunisia or Cape Verde Islands
72%
Draw or Cape Verde Islands
68%

Winning margin

Tunisia wins by 2+
12%
Cape Verde Islands wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tunisia 1+ goals
65%
Tunisia 2+ goals
29%
Tunisia 3+ goals
9%
Cape Verde Islands 1+ goals
71%
Cape Verde Islands 2+ goals
35%
Cape Verde Islands 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tunisia (draw refunded)
44%
Cape Verde Islands (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tunisia at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.63 · 19 matches

Cape Verde Islands away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tunisia attack 1.21 + Cape Verde Islands defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.06

Cape Verde Islands attack 1.82 + Tunisia defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tunisia scores more
32%
level
28%
Cape Verde Islands scores more
40%

Cape Verde Islands at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cape Verde Islands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tunisia vs Cape Verde Islands

Tunisia beat Cape Verde Islands 2-0 in Friendlies on January 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi in Radès.