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Tunisia U20 vs Mauritania U20 — Friendlies 2018

Tunisia U20
Tunisia U20
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Mauritania U20
Mauritania U20
Unknown 90', 22', 5'
Unknown 58', 51'
3/27/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly InternationalStade Chedly Zouiten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tunisia U2071%
×Draw17%
Mauritania U2012%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tunisia U20
2.50
Mauritania U20
0.92

Tunisia U20 creates 172% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Tunisia U20
2.00
Mauritania U20
1.00

allows per match

Tunisia U20
0.83
Mauritania U20
3.00

finishing

Tunisia U20+0.00on par
Mauritania U20+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tunisia U20 ↓

Mauritania U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Tunisia U20 or draw
88%
Tunisia U20 or Mauritania U20
83%
Draw or Mauritania U20
29%

Winning margin

Tunisia U20 wins by 2+
49%
Mauritania U20 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Tunisia U20 1+ goals
92%
Tunisia U20 2+ goals
71%
Tunisia U20 3+ goals
45%
Mauritania U20 1+ goals
60%
Mauritania U20 2+ goals
23%
Mauritania U20 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tunisia U20 (draw refunded)
86%
Mauritania U20 (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tunisia U20 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Mauritania U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tunisia U20 attack 2.00 + Mauritania U20 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Mauritania U20 attack 1.00 + Tunisia U20 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Tunisia U20 scores more
71%
level
17%
Mauritania U20 scores more
12%

Tunisia U20 at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Tunisia U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
22'
51'
58'
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tunisia U20 vs Mauritania U20

Tunisia U20 beat Mauritania U20 3-2 in Friendlies on March 27, 2026.

Goals: ? (5', 22', 51', 58', 90').

The match was played at Stade Chedly Zouiten in Tunis.