Tunisia U20 1–1 Egypt U20: Result & Stats

Tunisia U20

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Egypt U20

3/25/2024

Friendlies · World: Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tunisia U2051%

×Draw24%

Egypt U2025%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tunisia U20Expected goals in this matchEgypt U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.08

Tunisia U20

1.67

Egypt U20

1.08

Tunisia U20 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

1.33

0.83

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Tunisia U20

2.00

Egypt U20

1.33

allows per match

Tunisia U20

0.83

Egypt U20

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tunisia U20+0.00on par

Egypt U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tunisia U20 ↓

Egypt U20 →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Tunisia U20 or draw

75%

Tunisia U20 or Egypt U20

76%

Draw or Egypt U20

49%

Winning margin

Tunisia U20 wins by 2+

27%

Egypt U20 wins by 2+

Team goals

Tunisia U20 1+ goals

81%

Tunisia U20 2+ goals

50%

Tunisia U20 3+ goals

23%

Egypt U20 1+ goals

66%

Egypt U20 2+ goals

29%

Egypt U20 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tunisia U20 (draw refunded)

67%

Egypt U20 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tunisia U20 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Egypt U20 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tunisia U20 attack 2.00 + Egypt U20 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Egypt U20 attack 1.33 + Tunisia U20 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tunisia U20 scores more

51%

level

24%

Egypt U20 scores more

25%

Tunisia U20 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tunisia U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff