Tunari 0–1 Unirea Dej: Result & Stats | Liga II

Tunari

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Unirea Dej

2/24/2024

Liga II · Round 16Centrul de Fotbal Buftea Teren Natural

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Tunari30%

×Draw29%

Unirea Dej41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TunariExpected goals in this matchUnirea Dej

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.23

Tunari

1.01

Unirea Dej

1.23

Unirea Dej creates 22% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 38 away

0.89

creates per match

0.89

1.56

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Tunari

0.89

Unirea Dej

0.89

allows per match

Tunari

1.56

Unirea Dej

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tunari+0.00on par

Unirea Dej+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tunari ↓

Unirea Dej →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tunari or draw

59%

Tunari or Unirea Dej

71%

Draw or Unirea Dej

70%

Winning margin

Tunari wins by 2+

11%

Unirea Dej wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Tunari 1+ goals

64%

Tunari 2+ goals

27%

Tunari 3+ goals

8%

Unirea Dej 1+ goals

71%

Unirea Dej 2+ goals

35%

Unirea Dej 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tunari (draw refunded)

42%

Unirea Dej (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tunari at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.56 · 27 matches

Unirea Dej away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tunari attack 0.89 + Unirea Dej defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01

Unirea Dej attack 0.89 + Tunari defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tunari scores more

30%

level

29%

Unirea Dej scores more

41%

Unirea Dej at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Unirea Dej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff