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Tulsa Roughnecks vs Ventura County — USL Championship 2018

Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ventura County
Ventura County
6/28/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 27ONEOK Field (Tulsa, Oklahoma)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Tulsa Roughnecks46%
×Draw23%
Ventura County31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.75
Ventura County
1.40

Tulsa Roughnecks creates 25% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 77 away

creates per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.45
Ventura County
1.39

allows per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.42
Ventura County
2.04

finishing

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par
Ventura County+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulsa Roughnecks ↓

Ventura County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Tulsa Roughnecks or draw
69%
Tulsa Roughnecks or Ventura County
77%
Draw or Ventura County
54%

Winning margin

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
24%
Ventura County wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
83%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
52%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
25%
Ventura County 1+ goals
75%
Ventura County 2+ goals
41%
Ventura County 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
60%
Ventura County (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulsa Roughnecks at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Ventura County away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.04 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.45 + Ventura County defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.75

Ventura County attack 1.39 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
46%
level
23%
Ventura County scores more
31%

Tulsa Roughnecks at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tulsa Roughnecks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tulsa Roughnecks vs Ventura County

Tulsa Roughnecks beat Ventura County 2-0 in USL Championship on June 28, 2018.

The match was played at ONEOK Field (Tulsa, Oklahoma).