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Tulsa Roughnecks vs Sporting KC II — USL Championship 2018

Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
8/30/2020USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 16ONEOK Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Tulsa Roughnecks49%
×Draw23%
Sporting KC II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.81
Sporting KC II
1.30

Tulsa Roughnecks creates 39% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 66 away

creates per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.45
Sporting KC II
1.18

allows per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.42
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulsa Roughnecks ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Tulsa Roughnecks or draw
72%
Tulsa Roughnecks or Sporting KC II
77%
Draw or Sporting KC II
51%

Winning margin

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
27%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
84%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
54%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
27%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
73%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
37%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
64%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulsa Roughnecks at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.45 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.81

Sporting KC II attack 1.18 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
49%
level
23%
Sporting KC II scores more
28%

Tulsa Roughnecks at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tulsa Roughnecks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tulsa Roughnecks vs Sporting KC II

Sporting KC II beat Tulsa Roughnecks 2-1 in USL Championship on August 30, 2020.

The match was played at ONEOK Field in Tulsa, Oklahoma.