Tulsa Roughnecks 1–2 Sporting KC II: Result & Stats

Tulsa Roughnecks

FT

1 – 2

Sporting KC II

2/29/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Titan Sports and Performance Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tulsa Roughnecks50%

×Draw28%

Sporting KC II22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tulsa RoughnecksExpected goals in this matchSporting KC II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.80

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.36

Sporting KC II

0.80

Tulsa Roughnecks creates 70% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.40

creates per match

1.00

0.60

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.40

Sporting KC II

1.00

allows per match

Tulsa Roughnecks

0.60

Sporting KC II

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par

Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulsa Roughnecks ↓

Sporting KC II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tulsa Roughnecks or draw

78%

Tulsa Roughnecks or Sporting KC II

72%

Draw or Sporting KC II

50%

Winning margin

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+

24%

Sporting KC II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals

74%

Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals

39%

Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals

16%

Sporting KC II 1+ goals

55%

Sporting KC II 2+ goals

19%

Sporting KC II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)

69%

Sporting KC II (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulsa Roughnecks at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.40 + Sporting KC II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Sporting KC II attack 1.00 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more

50%

level

28%

Sporting KC II scores more

22%

Tulsa Roughnecks at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tulsa Roughnecks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff