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Tulsa Roughnecks vs San Diego Loyal — USL Championship 2018

Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Diego Loyal
San Diego Loyal
3/24/2022USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 4ONEOK Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Tulsa Roughnecks37%
×Draw25%
San Diego Loyal38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.46
San Diego Loyal
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 59 away

creates per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.45
San Diego Loyal
1.54

allows per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.42
San Diego Loyal
1.46

finishing

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par
San Diego Loyal+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulsa Roughnecks ↓

San Diego Loyal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tulsa Roughnecks or draw
62%
Tulsa Roughnecks or San Diego Loyal
75%
Draw or San Diego Loyal
63%

Winning margin

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
18%
San Diego Loyal wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
77%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
43%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
18%
San Diego Loyal 1+ goals
77%
San Diego Loyal 2+ goals
43%
San Diego Loyal 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
49%
San Diego Loyal (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulsa Roughnecks at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

San Diego Loyal away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.46 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.45 + San Diego Loyal defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.46

San Diego Loyal attack 1.54 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
37%
level
25%
San Diego Loyal scores more
38%

San Diego Loyal at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "San Diego Loyal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Tulsa Roughnecks 1–0 San Diego Loyal

Tulsa Roughnecks beat San Diego Loyal 1-0 in USL Championship on March 24, 2022.

The match was played at ONEOK Field in Tulsa, Oklahoma.