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Tulsa Roughnecks vs Real Monarchs — USL Championship 2018

Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Real Monarchs
Real Monarchs
3/24/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 4ONEOK Field (Tulsa, Oklahoma)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Tulsa Roughnecks46%
×Draw24%
Real Monarchs30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.63
Real Monarchs
1.27

Tulsa Roughnecks creates 28% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 57 away

creates per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.45
Real Monarchs
1.12

allows per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.42
Real Monarchs
1.81

finishing

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par
Real Monarchs+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulsa Roughnecks ↓

Real Monarchs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tulsa Roughnecks or draw
70%
Tulsa Roughnecks or Real Monarchs
76%
Draw or Real Monarchs
54%

Winning margin

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
24%
Real Monarchs wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
80%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
48%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
22%
Real Monarchs 1+ goals
72%
Real Monarchs 2+ goals
36%
Real Monarchs 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
61%
Real Monarchs (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulsa Roughnecks at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Real Monarchs away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.81 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.45 + Real Monarchs defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.63

Real Monarchs attack 1.12 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
46%
level
24%
Real Monarchs scores more
30%

Tulsa Roughnecks at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tulsa Roughnecks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Tulsa Roughnecks 2–3 Real Monarchs

Real Monarchs beat Tulsa Roughnecks 3-2 in USL Championship on March 24, 2018.

The match was played at ONEOK Field (Tulsa, Oklahoma).