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Tulsa Roughnecks vs Phoenix Rising — USL Championship 2018

Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 1
Phoenix Rising
Phoenix Rising
5/13/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 16ONEOK Field (Tulsa, Oklahoma)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Tulsa Roughnecks39%
×Draw25%
Phoenix Rising36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.48
Phoenix Rising
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 136 away

creates per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.45
Phoenix Rising
1.40

allows per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.42
Phoenix Rising
1.51

finishing

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par
Phoenix Rising+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulsa Roughnecks ↓

Phoenix Rising →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tulsa Roughnecks or draw
64%
Tulsa Roughnecks or Phoenix Rising
75%
Draw or Phoenix Rising
61%

Winning margin

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
19%
Phoenix Rising wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
77%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
43%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
19%
Phoenix Rising 1+ goals
76%
Phoenix Rising 2+ goals
41%
Phoenix Rising 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
52%
Phoenix Rising (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulsa Roughnecks at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Phoenix Rising away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.51 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.45 + Phoenix Rising defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.48

Phoenix Rising attack 1.40 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
39%
level
25%
Phoenix Rising scores more
36%

Tulsa Roughnecks at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tulsa Roughnecks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Tulsa Roughnecks 1–5 Phoenix Rising

Phoenix Rising beat Tulsa Roughnecks 5-1 in USL Championship on May 13, 2018.

The match was played at ONEOK Field (Tulsa, Oklahoma).