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FC Tulsa vs Phoenix Rising — US Open Cup 2018

FC Tulsa
FC Tulsa
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Phoenix Rising
Phoenix Rising
4/17/2025US Open CupUS Open Cup · 3rd RoundONEOK Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FC Tulsa58%
×Draw20%
Phoenix Rising21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tulsa
2.17
Phoenix Rising
1.25

FC Tulsa creates 74% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

FC Tulsa
2.33
Phoenix Rising
0.50

allows per match

FC Tulsa
2.00
Phoenix Rising
2.00

finishing

FC Tulsa+0.00on par
Phoenix Rising+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tulsa ↓

Phoenix Rising →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

FC Tulsa or draw
79%
FC Tulsa or Phoenix Rising
80%
Draw or Phoenix Rising
42%

Winning margin

FC Tulsa wins by 2+
36%
Phoenix Rising wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FC Tulsa 1+ goals
89%
FC Tulsa 2+ goals
64%
FC Tulsa 3+ goals
36%
Phoenix Rising 1+ goals
71%
Phoenix Rising 2+ goals
36%
Phoenix Rising 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Tulsa (draw refunded)
73%
Phoenix Rising (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tulsa at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Phoenix Rising away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tulsa attack 2.33 + Phoenix Rising defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Phoenix Rising attack 0.50 + FC Tulsa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FC Tulsa scores more
58%
level
20%
Phoenix Rising scores more
21%

FC Tulsa at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FC Tulsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Tulsa vs Phoenix Rising

FC Tulsa and Phoenix Rising drew 1-1 in US Open Cup on April 17, 2025.

The match was played at ONEOK Field.