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Tulsa Roughnecks vs Charleston Battery — USL Championship 2018

Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Charleston Battery
Charleston Battery
6/26/2022USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 22ONEOK Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Tulsa Roughnecks42%
×Draw25%
Charleston Battery34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.52
Charleston Battery
1.34

Tulsa Roughnecks creates 13% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 134 away

creates per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.45
Charleston Battery
1.26

allows per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.42
Charleston Battery
1.60

finishing

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par
Charleston Battery+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulsa Roughnecks ↓

Charleston Battery →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Tulsa Roughnecks or draw
66%
Tulsa Roughnecks or Charleston Battery
75%
Draw or Charleston Battery
58%

Winning margin

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
20%
Charleston Battery wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
78%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
45%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
20%
Charleston Battery 1+ goals
74%
Charleston Battery 2+ goals
39%
Charleston Battery 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
55%
Charleston Battery (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulsa Roughnecks at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Charleston Battery away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.60 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.45 + Charleston Battery defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Charleston Battery attack 1.26 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
42%
level
25%
Charleston Battery scores more
34%

Tulsa Roughnecks at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tulsa Roughnecks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Tulsa Roughnecks 2–1 Charleston Battery

Tulsa Roughnecks beat Charleston Battery 2-1 in USL Championship on June 26, 2022.

The match was played at ONEOK Field in Tulsa, Oklahoma.