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Tulsa Roughnecks vs Birmingham Legion — USL Championship 2018

Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Birmingham Legion
Birmingham Legion
8/8/2021USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 25ONEOK Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Tulsa Roughnecks40%
×Draw25%
Birmingham Legion35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.51
Birmingham Legion
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 119 away

creates per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.45
Birmingham Legion
1.39

allows per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.42
Birmingham Legion
1.57

finishing

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par
Birmingham Legion+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulsa Roughnecks ↓

Birmingham Legion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tulsa Roughnecks or draw
65%
Tulsa Roughnecks or Birmingham Legion
75%
Draw or Birmingham Legion
60%

Winning margin

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
19%
Birmingham Legion wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
78%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
44%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
19%
Birmingham Legion 1+ goals
75%
Birmingham Legion 2+ goals
41%
Birmingham Legion 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
53%
Birmingham Legion (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulsa Roughnecks at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Birmingham Legion away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.45 + Birmingham Legion defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.51

Birmingham Legion attack 1.39 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
40%
level
25%
Birmingham Legion scores more
35%

Tulsa Roughnecks at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tulsa Roughnecks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tulsa Roughnecks vs Birmingham Legion

Tulsa Roughnecks beat Birmingham Legion 3-1 in USL Championship on August 8, 2021.

The match was played at ONEOK Field in Tulsa, Oklahoma.