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Birmingham Legion vs FC Tulsa — USL League One Cup 2024

Birmingham Legion
Birmingham Legion
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FC Tulsa
FC Tulsa
R. Williams 90+3'
P. Vassell 84', 28'
L. Dorsey 33'
7/12/2026USL League One CupUSL League One Cup · Group StageProtective Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Birmingham Legion67%
×Draw19%
FC Tulsa14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham Legion
2.21
FC Tulsa
0.88

Birmingham Legion creates 151% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Birmingham Legion
2.75
FC Tulsa
1.00

allows per match

Birmingham Legion
0.75
FC Tulsa
1.67

finishing

Birmingham Legion+0.00on par
FC Tulsa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham Legion ↓

FC Tulsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Birmingham Legion or draw
86%
Birmingham Legion or FC Tulsa
81%
Draw or FC Tulsa
33%

Winning margin

Birmingham Legion wins by 2+
44%
FC Tulsa wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Birmingham Legion 1+ goals
89%
Birmingham Legion 2+ goals
65%
Birmingham Legion 3+ goals
38%
FC Tulsa 1+ goals
59%
FC Tulsa 2+ goals
22%
FC Tulsa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Birmingham Legion (draw refunded)
83%
FC Tulsa (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham Legion at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

FC Tulsa away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham Legion attack 2.75 + FC Tulsa defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.21

FC Tulsa attack 1.00 + Birmingham Legion defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Birmingham Legion scores more
67%
level
19%
FC Tulsa scores more
14%

Birmingham Legion at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Birmingham Legion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
P. Vassell↳ S. Tregarthen
33'
L. Dorsey↳ G. Colli
41'
L. Batista
63'
J. Kocevski
64'
K. Elmedkhar← J. Webber
64'
Z. Siranga← B. Sparks
68'
N. Pierre← L. Dorsey
68'
S. Saucedo← D. McCartney
72'
A. Clarke
76'
R. Williams← R. Damus
76'
S. Ngoma← G. Diarbian
82'
R. Williams
84'
P. Vassell
90+2'
Z. Siranga
90+3'
R. Williams

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Birmingham Legion vs FC Tulsa

Birmingham Legion beat FC Tulsa 3-1 in USL League One Cup on July 12, 2026.

Goals: P. Vassell (28', 84'), L. Dorsey (33'), R. Williams (90+3').

The match was played at Protective Stadium.