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Tulsa Roughnecks vs Atlanta United II — USL Championship 2018

Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Atlanta United II
Atlanta United II
7/10/2022USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 25ONEOK Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Tulsa Roughnecks53%
×Draw22%
Atlanta United II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.90
Atlanta United II
1.23

Tulsa Roughnecks creates 54% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 75 away

creates per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.45
Atlanta United II
1.03

allows per match

Tulsa Roughnecks
1.42
Atlanta United II
2.35

finishing

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par
Atlanta United II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulsa Roughnecks ↓

Atlanta United II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Tulsa Roughnecks or draw
75%
Tulsa Roughnecks or Atlanta United II
78%
Draw or Atlanta United II
47%

Winning margin

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
30%
Atlanta United II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
85%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
56%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
29%
Atlanta United II 1+ goals
71%
Atlanta United II 2+ goals
35%
Atlanta United II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
68%
Atlanta United II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulsa Roughnecks at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 132 matches

Atlanta United II away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.35 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.45 + Atlanta United II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.90

Atlanta United II attack 1.03 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
53%
level
22%
Atlanta United II scores more
25%

Tulsa Roughnecks at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tulsa Roughnecks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tulsa Roughnecks vs Atlanta United II

Tulsa Roughnecks beat Atlanta United II 2-1 in USL Championship on July 10, 2022.

The match was played at ONEOK Field in Tulsa, Oklahoma.