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Tulsa Athletics vs Northern Colorado — US Open Cup 2018

Tulsa Athletics
Tulsa Athletics
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado
3/20/2024US Open CupUS Open Cup · 1st RoundHicks Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tulsa Athletics39%
×Draw27%
Northern Colorado34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tulsa Athletics
1.27
Northern Colorado
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Tulsa Athletics
1.20
Northern Colorado
1.33

allows per match

Tulsa Athletics
1.00
Northern Colorado
1.33

finishing

Tulsa Athletics+0.00on par
Northern Colorado+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulsa Athletics ↓

Northern Colorado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tulsa Athletics or draw
66%
Tulsa Athletics or Northern Colorado
73%
Draw or Northern Colorado
61%

Winning margin

Tulsa Athletics wins by 2+
17%
Northern Colorado wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tulsa Athletics 1+ goals
72%
Tulsa Athletics 2+ goals
36%
Tulsa Athletics 3+ goals
14%
Northern Colorado 1+ goals
69%
Northern Colorado 2+ goals
33%
Northern Colorado 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tulsa Athletics (draw refunded)
53%
Northern Colorado (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulsa Athletics at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Northern Colorado away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulsa Athletics attack 1.20 + Northern Colorado defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Northern Colorado attack 1.33 + Tulsa Athletics defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tulsa Athletics scores more
39%
level
27%
Northern Colorado scores more
34%

Tulsa Athletics at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tulsa Athletics will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

US Open Cup: Tulsa Athletics 1–4 Northern Colorado

Northern Colorado beat Tulsa Athletics 4-1 in US Open Cup on March 20, 2024.

The match was played at Hicks Park in Tulsa, Oklahoma.