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Tuloy vs Loyola — PFL 2020

Tuloy
Tuloy
FT
6 – 2
HT: 4 – 1
Loyola
Loyola
7/6/2024PFLPFL · Round 10Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tuloy37%
×Draw19%
Loyola44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tuloy
2.35
Loyola
2.58

Loyola creates 10% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

creates per match

Tuloy
1.89
Loyola
1.38

allows per match

Tuloy
3.78
Loyola
2.81

finishing

Tuloy+0.00on par
Loyola+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tuloy ↓

Loyola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Tuloy or draw
56%
Tuloy or Loyola
81%
Draw or Loyola
63%

Winning margin

Tuloy wins by 2+
21%
Loyola wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Tuloy 1+ goals
90%
Tuloy 2+ goals
68%
Tuloy 3+ goals
41%
Loyola 1+ goals
92%
Loyola 2+ goals
72%
Loyola 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Tuloy (draw refunded)
45%
Loyola (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tuloy at home — creates 1.89, concedes 3.78 · 18 matches

Loyola away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tuloy attack 1.89 + Loyola defence 2.81 → ÷2 → 2.35

Loyola attack 1.38 + Tuloy defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Tuloy scores more
37%
level
19%
Loyola scores more
44%

Loyola at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Loyola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PFL: Tuloy 6–2 Loyola

Tuloy beat Loyola 6-2 in PFL on July 6, 2024.

The match was played at Rizal Memorial Stadium in Manila.