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Tulevik vs Pärnu — Esiliiga B 2026

Tulevik
Tulevik
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Pärnu
Pärnu
9/15/2024Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 27Viljandi linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tulevik60%
×Draw19%
Pärnu21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tulevik
2.42
Pärnu
1.36

Tulevik creates 78% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 18 away

creates per match

Tulevik
2.50
Pärnu
0.89

allows per match

Tulevik
1.83
Pärnu
2.33

finishing

Tulevik+0.00on par
Pärnu+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulevik ↓

Pärnu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Tulevik or draw
79%
Tulevik or Pärnu
81%
Draw or Pärnu
40%

Winning margin

Tulevik wins by 2+
39%
Pärnu wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tulevik 1+ goals
91%
Tulevik 2+ goals
69%
Tulevik 3+ goals
43%
Pärnu 1+ goals
74%
Pärnu 2+ goals
39%
Pärnu 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Tulevik (draw refunded)
75%
Pärnu (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulevik at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

Pärnu away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulevik attack 2.50 + Pärnu defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.42

Pärnu attack 0.89 + Tulevik defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Tulevik scores more
60%
level
19%
Pärnu scores more
21%

Tulevik at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Tulevik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tulevik vs Pärnu

Tulevik beat Pärnu 3-1 in Esiliiga B on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Viljandi linnastaadion in Viljandi.