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Tulevik vs Paide II — Esiliiga B 2026

Tulevik
Tulevikadvanced
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Paide II
Paide II
11/15/2025Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · FinalViljandi linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tulevik53%
×Draw20%
Paide II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tulevik
2.27
Paide II
1.58

Tulevik creates 44% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tulevik
2.50
Paide II
1.32

allows per match

Tulevik
1.83
Paide II
2.05

finishing

Tulevik+0.00on par
Paide II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulevik ↓

Paide II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Tulevik or draw
73%
Tulevik or Paide II
80%
Draw or Paide II
47%

Winning margin

Tulevik wins by 2+
32%
Paide II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tulevik 1+ goals
90%
Tulevik 2+ goals
66%
Tulevik 3+ goals
39%
Paide II 1+ goals
79%
Paide II 2+ goals
47%
Paide II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Tulevik (draw refunded)
66%
Paide II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulevik at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

Paide II away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulevik attack 2.50 + Paide II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.27

Paide II attack 1.32 + Tulevik defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tulevik scores more
53%
level
20%
Paide II scores more
27%

Tulevik at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tulevik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tulevik vs Paide II

Tulevik beat Paide II 5-1 in Esiliiga B on November 15, 2025.

The match was played at Viljandi linnastaadion in Viljandi.