Tulevik 0–5 Paide II: Result & Stats | Esiliiga A

Tulevik

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Paide II

E. Singhateh 62', 53', 4'

M. Kelement 28'

B. Tambedou 18'

3/7/2022

Esiliiga A · Round 2Viljandi Männimäe Jalgpallihall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Tulevik27%

×Draw20%

Paide II53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TulevikExpected goals in this matchPaide II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

2.29

Tulevik

1.61

Paide II

2.29

Paide II creates 42% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 63 away

0.83

creates per match

1.97

2.61

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Tulevik

0.83

Paide II

1.97

allows per match

Tulevik

2.61

Paide II

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tulevik+0.00on par

Paide II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulevik ↓

Paide II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Tulevik or draw

47%

Tulevik or Paide II

80%

Draw or Paide II

73%

Winning margin

Tulevik wins by 2+

13%

Paide II wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Tulevik 1+ goals

80%

Tulevik 2+ goals

48%

Tulevik 3+ goals

22%

Paide II 1+ goals

90%

Paide II 2+ goals

66%

Paide II 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Tulevik (draw refunded)

34%

Paide II (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulevik at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.61 · 18 matches

Paide II away — creates 1.97, concedes 2.40 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulevik attack 0.83 + Paide II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.61

Paide II attack 1.97 + Tulevik defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tulevik scores more

27%

level

20%

Paide II scores more

53%

Paide II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Paide II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

18'

23'

28'

46'

46'

53'

55'

62'

K. Kanne← E. Singhateh

62'

K. Kiik← M. Einer

62'

S. Usar← B. Tambedou

62'

E. Singhateh

65'

A. Hunt← S. Liir

65'

H. Boukhelkhal← L. Elur

79'

R. Pilv← R. Domberg

89'

K. Kask← R. Veske

Tulevik

Paide

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Tambedou

Luts

⚽3

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: I. Ilves

65'▲A. Hunt←▼S. Liir

65'▲H. Boukhelkhal←▼L. Elur

79'▲R. Pilv←▼R. Domberg

89'▲K. Kask←▼R. Veske

Tulevik substitutes

HuntBoukhelkhalPilvKaskJürisson

Manager: M. Rooba

46'▲S. Soo←▼H. Riiberg

46'▲C. Toomet←▼K. Metso

62'▲K. Kanne←▼E. Singhateh

62'▲K. Kiik←▼M. Einer

62'▲S. Usar←▼B. Tambedou

Paide II substitutes

SooToometKanneKiikUsarHanson