Tulevik 4–3 Kuressaare II: Result & Stats

Tulevik

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Kuressaare II

11/3/2024

Esiliiga B · Round 35Viljandi Männimäe Jalgpallihall

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tulevik55%

×Draw19%

Kuressaare II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TulevikExpected goals in this matchKuressaare II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.53

1.73

Tulevik

2.53

Kuressaare II

1.73

Tulevik creates 46% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 36 away

2.50

creates per match

1.64

1.83

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Tulevik

2.50

Kuressaare II

1.64

allows per match

Tulevik

1.83

Kuressaare II

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tulevik+0.00on par

Kuressaare II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tulevik ↓

Kuressaare II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Tulevik or draw

74%

Tulevik or Kuressaare II

81%

Draw or Kuressaare II

45%

Winning margin

Tulevik wins by 2+

35%

Kuressaare II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tulevik 1+ goals

92%

Tulevik 2+ goals

71%

Tulevik 3+ goals

46%

Kuressaare II 1+ goals

82%

Kuressaare II 2+ goals

52%

Kuressaare II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Tulevik (draw refunded)

68%

Kuressaare II (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tulevik at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.83 · 30 matches

Kuressaare II away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.56 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tulevik attack 2.50 + Kuressaare II defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.53

Kuressaare II attack 1.64 + Tulevik defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tulevik scores more

55%

level

19%

Kuressaare II scores more

26%

Tulevik at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tulevik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff