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Tukunnin vs Cavaliers — Championnat National 2019

Tukunnin
Tukunnin
FT
1 – 1
Cavaliers
Cavaliers
12/30/2023Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 15Stade Saka Kina Guézéré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Tukunnin42%
×Draw30%
Cavaliers28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tukunnin
1.19
Cavaliers
0.92

Tukunnin creates 29% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 107 away

creates per match

Tukunnin
1.26
Cavaliers
0.86

allows per match

Tukunnin
0.98
Cavaliers
1.13

finishing

Tukunnin+0.00on par
Cavaliers+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tukunnin ↓

Cavaliers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tukunnin or draw
72%
Tukunnin or Cavaliers
70%
Draw or Cavaliers
58%

Winning margin

Tukunnin wins by 2+
18%
Cavaliers wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tukunnin 1+ goals
70%
Tukunnin 2+ goals
33%
Tukunnin 3+ goals
12%
Cavaliers 1+ goals
60%
Cavaliers 2+ goals
23%
Cavaliers 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tukunnin (draw refunded)
60%
Cavaliers (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tukunnin at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.98 · 87 matches

Cavaliers away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.13 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tukunnin attack 1.26 + Cavaliers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Cavaliers attack 0.86 + Tukunnin defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tukunnin scores more
42%
level
30%
Cavaliers scores more
28%

Tukunnin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tukunnin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tukunnin vs Cavaliers

Tukunnin and Cavaliers drew 1-1 in Championnat National on December 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Saka Kina Guézéré in Kandi.