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Tukunnin vs Buffles — Championnat National 2019

Tukunnin
Tukunnin
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Buffles
Buffles
10/16/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group A - 3Stade Saka Kina Guézéré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Tukunnin35%
×Draw31%
Buffles34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tukunnin
1.00
Buffles
0.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 115 away

creates per match

Tukunnin
1.26
Buffles
0.96

allows per match

Tukunnin
0.98
Buffles
0.74

finishing

Tukunnin+0.00on par
Buffles+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tukunnin ↓

Buffles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tukunnin or draw
66%
Tukunnin or Buffles
69%
Draw or Buffles
65%

Winning margin

Tukunnin wins by 2+
13%
Buffles wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tukunnin 1+ goals
63%
Tukunnin 2+ goals
26%
Tukunnin 3+ goals
8%
Buffles 1+ goals
62%
Buffles 2+ goals
25%
Buffles 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tukunnin (draw refunded)
51%
Buffles (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tukunnin at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.98 · 87 matches

Buffles away — creates 0.96, concedes 0.74 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tukunnin attack 1.26 + Buffles defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.00

Buffles attack 0.96 + Tukunnin defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Tukunnin scores more
35%
level
31%
Buffles scores more
34%

Tukunnin at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Tukunnin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Tukunnin 2–1 Buffles

Tukunnin beat Buffles 2-1 in Championnat National on October 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Saka Kina Guézéré in Kandi.