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Tukunnin vs BOA — Championnat National 2019

Tukunnin
Tukunnin
FT
1 – 1
BOA
BOA
9/28/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group A - 1Stade Saka Kina Guézéré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tukunnin50%
×Draw28%
BOA22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tukunnin
1.33
BOA
0.78

Tukunnin creates 71% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tukunnin
1.26
BOA
0.59

allows per match

Tukunnin
0.98
BOA
1.41

finishing

Tukunnin+0.00on par
BOA+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tukunnin ↓

BOA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tukunnin or draw
78%
Tukunnin or BOA
72%
Draw or BOA
50%

Winning margin

Tukunnin wins by 2+
24%
BOA wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tukunnin 1+ goals
74%
Tukunnin 2+ goals
38%
Tukunnin 3+ goals
15%
BOA 1+ goals
54%
BOA 2+ goals
18%
BOA 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tukunnin (draw refunded)
69%
BOA (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tukunnin at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.98 · 87 matches

BOA away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tukunnin attack 1.26 + BOA defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.33

BOA attack 0.59 + Tukunnin defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tukunnin scores more
50%
level
28%
BOA scores more
22%

Tukunnin at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tukunnin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Tukunnin 1–1 BOA

Tukunnin and BOA drew 1-1 in Championnat National on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Saka Kina Guézéré in Kandi.