Tukums 4–0 Līvāni: Result & Stats | Cup

Tukums

4 – 0

Līvāni

7/18/2021

Cup · 2nd RoundTukuma pilsētas stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tukums47%

×Draw18%

Līvāni34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TukumsExpected goals in this matchLīvāni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.83

2.42

Tukums

2.83

Līvāni

2.42

Tukums creates 17% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.67

creates per match

2.33

2.50

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Tukums

1.67

Līvāni

2.33

allows per match

Tukums

2.50

Līvāni

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tukums+0.00on par

Līvāni+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes85
No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tukums ↓

Līvāni →

0–01%

0–11%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–02%

1–14%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4–01%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

97%3%2.5

89%11%3.5

76%24%4.5

59%41%

Double chance

Tukums or draw

66%

Tukums or Līvāni

82%

Draw or Līvāni

53%

Winning margin

Tukums wins by 2+

30%

Līvāni wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Tukums 1+ goals

94%

Tukums 2+ goals

77%

Tukums 3+ goals

53%

Līvāni 1+ goals

91%

Līvāni 2+ goals

69%

Līvāni 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Tukums (draw refunded)

58%

Līvāni (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

82%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tukums at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Līvāni away — creates 2.33, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tukums attack 1.67 + Līvāni defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.83

Līvāni attack 2.33 + Tukums defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tukums scores more

47%

level

18%

Līvāni scores more

34%

Tukums at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tukums will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff